David Weigel | Slate | March 22, 2013
Last Friday, after 24-odd hours of media chatter about Ohio Sen. Rob Portman’s conversion to the cause of gay marriage, I ran into the one person who wasn’t surprised. Brian Brown, the president of the National Organization for Marriage, stopped by a happy hour that Rick Santorum’s PAC was hosting for activists at the Conservative Political Action Conference. He was probably tired of talking about it, I figured, but why not ask? What did he think of Portman?
“Portman’s going to have a primary in 2016,” said Brown. Advocates of traditional marriage had never really trusted Portman anyway. “He was never out in front on marriage.” And he wasn’t representative of any Republican shift, as much as the media wanted to portray it as such.
The traditional marriage cause has received no good news since then. No other notable Republicans have flipped, but the Republican National Committee issued a report on party renewal, and it didn’t mention marriage. A Washington Post/ABC poll found the highest-ever overall support for gay marriage, 58 percent. For the first time ever, young Republicans (under 49) were solidly in favor of gay marriage.
Overall, though, 59 percent of Republicans still opposed it. Republicans over 65, the party’s most reliable voters, opposed gay marriage by a 68-25 margin. It’s relatively easy for Rob Portman, three-odd years away from a primary, to flip on gay marriage. It’s harder to calculate the costs for Republicans if they “evolve” on gay marriage now, or if activists think they see them evolving.
Daily Queer News 